The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. (Go to the bottom of the page. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN 5. Hillary Clinton (578) The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). (The highest value being again 66.1%). Contributors wanted George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Trump won 18 of the 19. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Joe Biden (631) From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. "They followed through the whole four years. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. 11. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. University of Denver, 2. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Will That Last?]. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). What science tells us about the afterlife. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Not anymore. It almost became religious.". A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. So, where are the bellwether counties? More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Here's why. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Seriously. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. What are your thoughts on this article? In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Watauga has gone for. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. In 2020, a single. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Their hopes are real. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. 2020 Election (1210) This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Still, the state's worth watching. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Trump won the other 18 counties. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. 2. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Go on, look them up! Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020.
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